37%
Here’s an interesting coincidence:
- Trump’s approval rating as he assumes the presidency: 37%
- Percentage of the votes for PiS in 2015: 38%
- Most support Hitler ever got in a free election: 37%
My theory: in any country at any time, it’s possible to get around this many votes for a dangerous demagogue. The rise of such characters to this level of support doesn’t even need a complicated sociological, economic, or cultural explanation. In a secure democracy the center-left and center-right then grit their teeth, and join together to prevent tyranny, even though this means that some will end up supporting a politician (or rival) they vehemently disagree with. Consider what happened in 1990 in Poland. When Lech Wałęsa ended up facing an unhinged demagogue named Stanisław Tymiński (who, come to think of it, was strikingly similar to Trump) in the second round of the presidential elections, 74% of the voters banded together to support Wałęsa. Surveys taken shortly afterwards showed that only 49% actually supported the new president; the rest supported democracy, and were willing to put up with one term of a bad leader in order to preserve the system. If only the wisdom demonstrated by Poles in 1990 was more common today.