Polish Election Update
Just a quick election update, as we reach the final stretch of this campaign. On Monday there will be a debate between Ewa Kopacz (PO) and Beata Szydło, though I am skeptical that this will change much unless one of them has a surprisingly bad performance. Of the five most recent surveys only one has PiS winning enough seats to govern alone. Two others give them enough votes to govern in a coalition with the party of Paweł Kukiz. The remaining pair of surveys suggest that an anti-PiS grand coalition might be possible. In other words, it’s still too close to call. The following charts show the projected distribution of power in the sejm, not the actual electoral support. All the data can be found here.
