The Polish Election: Too Close to Call?
With one month to go before the Polish election, the sense of impending triumph among PiS (Law and Justice) supporters is palpable. But if the newest poll by Millward Brown (for Gazeta Wyborcza) is to be believed, it might be closer than we think. The “Zjodnoczona Prawica” (The United Right), as the PiS-led coalition is known, currently has 33% support to only 22% for PO (Civic Platform). But if we consider the most likely coalitions, the gap narrows considerably. Assuming that PiS would join with KORWiN and Kukiz 15, they would get 45%. It is hard to imagine any of the other parties joining such a government, which leaves a PO-led opposition with 42%. Since Kukiz is currently sitting precariously on the line needed to win any delegates, we could easily imagine his group not making it to the new Sejm. That would leave a PiS/KORWiN coalition with only 40%, thus keeping them in the opposition (albeit with a much tighter balance of power). Remember that the votes cast for parties that don’t make the 5% cut-off are distributed proportionally among the parties that do make it in, so a small lead gets magnified. This isn’t over….
