Based on the exit poll results from IPSOS, several interesting patterns emerge from the Polish election. Most of these results are to be expected: Duda won the rural vote, Komorowski, the urban vote; Duda won among those with little education, Komorowski won among those with university degrees; Duda won in the southeast, Komorowski in the northwest (on the map below, a darker color indicates more Duda voters). But two of these figures do stand out: Duda won overwhelmingly among those under 30, and Komorowski lost 20% of those who voted for him last time. Put differently this means that the difference between this election and 2010 can be brought down to two points:
1) A significant number of people who voted for Komorowski when his opponent was Kaczynski went over to the other side when the opponent was Duda. Perhaps this simply marks disillusionment with Komorowski, but perhaps it marks an openness to PiS as long as it gives a softer, less strident presentation.
2) Duda was strongest among those with no memory of the last time PiS was in power. Or perhaps this is a reflection of the fact that the young are the most frustrated by the insecurities of today’s economy. Either way, this is a very dangerous sign for Civic Platform.